AGP Executive Report

Naval Modernization Deal: Lithuania and Norway signed a memorandum to develop standardized multi-purpose naval vessels, with a modular platform meant to replace multiple ship classes and let one hull be reconfigured for air defence, drones, electronic warfare, and mine work; Lithuania plans four ships and mine countermeasures, aiming to avoid a post-2030 capability gap and reserve at least 30% of value for Lithuanian industry. Maritime Law Push: On the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration, 14 countries including Lithuania reaffirmed the ruling as final and legally binding while China rejected it, escalating the diplomatic standoff over “expansive maritime claims.” Energy Security Ties: Lithuania’s grid synchronization progress was highlighted as a model for resilience after ending dependence on Russian and Belarusian electricity, now fully linked to the EU market via Poland. Defence Industry Spotlight: A NATO summit controversy followed Turkish President Erdoğan’s engraved revolver gifts with live ammunition, including one shown in Lithuania’s presidential office, raising legal and security questions across Europe. Health Tech: A Lithuanian wrist-worn wearable system is described as using smarter analysis to distinguish dangerous arrhythmias from noise and support earlier risk assessment for doctors.

Energy Security & Grid Integration: Lithuania and its Baltic neighbours are now fully synced with the EU electricity market after ending dependence on Russian and Belarusian grids, a long-running project that required tight coordination and political backing. NATO & Defence Industry: At the Ankara summit, Turkish President Erdoğan sent leaders home with personalized revolvers loaded with live ammunition, triggering regulatory and customs headaches across Europe, while NATO’s push for higher defence spending and deeper industrial cooperation keeps reshaping procurement priorities. Lithuanian Telecom & 5G: Tele2 won three spectrum blocks in Lithuania’s auction, paying €9.8m and securing network planning until 2042—setting up a race toward 5G Standalone. EU Policy & AI Compliance: The EU AI Act’s enforcement calendar is tightening, with key transparency rules set to start in August and major high-risk obligations pushed further under the “Digital Omnibus” changes. Food Industry: Estonia’s move toward ending caged hens by 2035 is running into cross-border price pressure, with producers warning that bans won’t be “fair” unless Lithuania and Latvia align. Health Tech: A wrist-worn wearable is being positioned as a smarter way to flag arrhythmia patterns and assess stroke risk earlier, not just detect irregular rhythms. Maritime Diplomacy: Fourteen governments marked the 10th anniversary of the South China Sea arbitral award, reaffirming it as legally binding and calling for stronger defence and technical cooperation for the Philippines.

NATO Aftermath & Defense Spending: Europe’s rearmament message is getting louder after the Ankara summit, with maps showing Ukraine at nearly 40% of GDP on defense in 2025 and most other European states averaging around 2%—while NATO pushes toward 5% targets. Security & Energy Risk: The Kremlin claims Ukraine is behind “terrorist” attacks on critical energy infrastructure, citing alleged UAV strikes on Gazprom-linked pipeline assets tied to Turkey. Lithuanian Tech & AI Infrastructure: Oxylabs, a Lithuania-based web data infrastructure firm, raised $130M from Warburg Pincus to expand its AI data platform. Telecom Upgrade: Tele2 won Lithuanian spectrum blocks in a national auction, paying €9.8M for licenses running to 2042 and setting up the next 5G Standalone push. Naval Capability Planning: Lithuania and Norway signed an MoU on standardized vessels, with Lithuania considering Norwegian platforms for fleet renewal after 2030. Nuclear Decommissioning: Altra launched an international tender worth about €400M for designing and dismantling Ignalina’s RBMK-1500 reactor cores. Aviation Connectivity: Wizz Air announced a new direct route from Lithuania to Berlin, starting thrice-weekly flights.

5G Rollout in Lithuania: Tele2 won new spectrum blocks in Lithuania’s auction, paying €9.8m for 700MHz, 1500MHz and renewed 2100MHz licenses that run to 2042, setting up a push for 5G Standalone competition. AI & Data Infrastructure: Lithuania’s Oxylabs raised $130m from Warburg Pincus to expand its live web data platform used for AI and cybersecurity, valuing the firm at about €3.6bn. Naval Modernisation: Lithuania signed an MoU with Norway on standardized vessels, exploring Norwegian-developed platforms to refresh its fleet after 2030. Nuclear Decommissioning: State-owned Altra launched an international tender worth about €400m for dismantling the Ignalina reactor cores, including licensing and radioactive waste management. Border Security Tech: Lithuania tripled funding for a programme to detect and stop Belarus-linked cigarette-smuggling weather balloons, with prototypes and a pilot batch planned. Aviation Connectivity: Wizz Air announced a new direct route from Lithuania to Berlin, adding thrice-weekly service for travellers and business links. Tourism Demand Shift: Lithuania’s Baltic coast is being marketed as a quieter, nature-led alternative to crowded European beaches, with visitor research citing nature as a top draw.

Telecom Upgrade: Tele2 won three spectrum blocks in Lithuania’s auction, paying €9.8m for 700MHz, 1500MHz and renewed 2100MHz licenses running to 2042, setting up a push for 5G Standalone against Telia. AI & Data Infrastructure: Vilnius-based Oxylabs raised $130m from Warburg Pincus, valuing it at about €3.6bn, to expand its live web data platform used for AI training and agent work. Energy Storage Boom: Litgrid says Lithuania connected 752MW of new solar, wind and storage in H1 2026, with battery storage jumping to 276MW and total storage reaching 0.7GW. Border Tech for Smuggling: Lithuania tripled funding for a program to detect Belarus-linked weather balloons used to smuggle cigarettes, boosting it to €3m for prototype and pilot development. Nuclear Decommissioning: State firm Altra launched an international tender worth ~€400m for engineering and dismantling Ignalina’s RBMK-1500 reactor cores, including waste management. Naval Modernisation: Lithuania signed an MoU with Norway on standardized vessels, exploring Norwegian platforms to renew its fleet after 2030. Defense Industry Watch: NATO’s GlobalEye AWACS procurement includes Lithuania among partners, while the Ankara summit also sparked security and customs questions after Erdoğan gifted engraved revolvers with live ammo to leaders. Aviation Connectivity: Wizz Air announced a new Vilnius–Berlin route with three weekly flights, boosting business and leisure travel links.

Energy & Security Tech: Lithuania tripled funding to €3mn for a pre-commercial procurement to develop tech that detects and stops Belarus-linked weather balloons used for cigarette smuggling, with prototypes tested in operational conditions. Grid Build-Out: Litgrid says Lithuania added 752 MW of solar, wind and energy storage connections in H1 2026, with battery storage surging from 19 MW to 276 MW year-on-year and total storage capacity now at 0.7 GW. Defense Procurement: Lithuania received a new batch of Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles worth over €3mn (total received value now above €11.5mn) to counter Russian armored vehicles. AI & Data Infrastructure: Vilnius-based Oxylabs raised €113.6mn from Warburg Pincus, valuing it at €3.1bn, as it pushes “web intelligence” for AI agents. Shipping Costs: Maersk cut inland fuel/energy surcharges for Denmark, Finland and the Baltics (Lithuania 1%, others 3–4%), while warning winter gas storage remains tight. Banking Expansion: Revolut appointed Kuba Fast (ex-Chase UK) to lead its Lithuania-based European banking entity, Revolut Bank UAB. NATO Industry Angle: NATO plans to buy up to 10 Saab GlobalEye radar aircraft, with Lithuania among participating states.

Defense & Security: Lithuania received another batch of Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles from Germany, boosting its stockpile to over €11.5m and targeting Russian armored vehicles. NATO & Industry: At the Ankara summit, Turkey’s Erdogan gifted NATO leaders engraved vintage revolvers with live ammunition—prompting customs and security headaches across capitals, including Lithuania’s. Energy Infrastructure: Ignitis secured an additional 2 TWh of long-term regasification capacity at Klaipeda LNG for 2033–2044, strengthening Baltic gas supply planning. AI & Computing: Lithuania and Poland will jointly develop an EU AI gigafactory under EuroHPC, aiming to build next-gen large-scale computing capacity. Tech & Investment: Vilnius-based Oxylabs raised $130m from Warburg Pincus at a ~$3.6bn valuation, betting on “agentic web” data infrastructure. Business & Finance: Revolut appointed former Chase UK boss Kuba Fast to lead Revolut Bank UAB in Lithuania, as it expands across the EEA. Energy Transition & Cyber: Lithuania’s grid operators can disconnect solar plants over 100 kW that miss new cybersecurity rules, signaling tougher enforcement for distributed renewables. Economy Watch: Lithuania’s inflation hit 5.7% y/y in June, with transport and housing/utility costs driving the rise. EU Policy: A proposed EU tobacco reform drew objections from 90% of 82,000+ consultation responses, while the EC also advanced infringement cases including a drinking water directive push involving Lithuania.

AI & Computing: Lithuania and Poland have joined the EuroHPC push for European AI gigafactories, submitting a joint proposal to build next-gen AI computing capacity, with Lithuania’s economy ministry signing the procurement agreement on July 7. Solar Supply Chain: A planned EU ban on “high-risk” PV inverters and power-conversion systems from certain suppliers could hit about 14% of forecasted EU solar demand to 2030, with the Baltics and Romania among the most exposed. Energy Regulation: The European Commission has launched infringement steps against Lithuania and other countries over restrictive mandatory authorisation/certification rules for energy installation and construction services. Housing Pressure: Eurostat data show house prices and rents rising across the EU in early 2026; Lithuania recorded a double-digit jump in house prices (11.9%). Defense Industry & Logistics: NATO’s Ankara summit backed major industrial moves, including Lithuania’s participation in the joint procurement of Saab GlobalEye AWACS aircraft and a Norway-Lithuania MoU for standardized modular naval vessels. Energy Security (LNG): Ignitis has invited international suppliers for long-term LNG deliveries up to 10 years, aiming to start predictable pricing for consumers from 2027.

NATO Summit Fallout: Leaders in Ankara pushed “ironclad” Article 5 language and more defense manufacturing, even as Trump again rattled allies over Iran and Greenland—while markets reacted to fresh Iran-strike uncertainty. Lithuanian Defense & Maritime Industry: Lithuania signed a MoU with Norway to join Kongsberg’s Standardised Vessel Programme, aiming for modular multi-role ships and shared logistics; Lithuania also backed NATO’s push for deeper industrial output. Air Defense Push: Trump said the U.S. will license Patriot production overseas for Ukraine, while Norway pledged funds for Patriot missiles—raising pressure on European supply chains. Drone Industrial Cooperation: Zelensky signed drone deals with Denmark, Estonia and the Netherlands, and Ukraine and Germany agreed to jointly produce BARS strike drones under “Build with Ukraine.” Energy Security for Industry: Ignitis invited LNG suppliers for up to 10 years, with pricing linked partly to Henry Hub to stabilize costs for Klaipėda; Lithuania also moved to seek PCI status for a Baltic–German power link to integrate offshore wind and cut fossil dependence. Crypto Meets Banking: Kraken is reportedly pursuing a European banking license with Lithuania targeted, echoing earlier licensing paths that pulled crypto closer to mainstream finance.

Lithuania’s Defence Procurement: Lithuania received another batch of German-made Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles, with the delivery described as the fourth since Aug 2025 under an €11.5m contract, feeding Vilkas infantry fighting vehicles. NATO Industrial Push: NATO moved to negotiate with Saab for up to 10 GlobalEye radar aircraft to replace ageing E-3 AWACS, with Lithuania among the participating buyers. Ukraine Air-Defence Supply Chain: Norway pledged about €268m (NOK 3bn) to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences via Patriot missile procurement, aiming to speed deliveries using existing stockpiles. Baltic Security Pressure: Russia warned the Baltic states they are “playing with fire,” alleging their territories enable attacks on Russia—while Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia deny authorising such use. Fintech & Regulation in Lithuania: Crypto exchange Kraken is reportedly pursuing full European banking authorization with Lithuania as the target jurisdiction, echoing Revolut’s Bank of Lithuania licensing path. Energy & Industry Context: NATO estimates show Lithuania leading alliance defence spending at 5.33% of GDP, underscoring how security spending is reshaping regional industrial demand.

Lithuanian Defence Supply: A new batch of German-made Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles worth €3m has arrived in Lithuania, the fourth delivery under an €11.5m EuroSpike contract, with the weapons integrated into Vilkas infantry fighting vehicles. NATO Industrial Push: At the Ankara summit’s Defence Industry Forum, NATO confirmed at least $50bn in new deals, including negotiations to buy up to 10 Saab GlobalEye early-warning aircraft to replace parts of the E-3 AWACS fleet, plus new counter-drone funding and drone procurement plans. Ukraine Air-Defence Procurement: Nine EU states, including Lithuania, urged the European Commission to quickly approve using the €90bn Ukraine support package to buy US air-defence missiles (PAC-3, AIM-120, ATACMS, MALD, HARM) where European industry can’t deliver fast enough. Energy & Industry Context: Eurostat data shows EU renewables hit a record 45.5% of electricity in Q1 2026, with Lithuania at 75.7%—a backdrop for ongoing grid and storage investment. Health Tech (Local R&D): Kaunas University of Technology-backed wristband tech is being used to track hidden arrhythmias in daily life, aiming to prevent strokes.

NATO & Defence Industry: Ahead of the Ankara summit, NATO leaders are set to unveil major arms deals worth tens of billions, as the US presses allies to move faster toward the 5% of GDP defence target and Europe debates how much responsibility it can realistically take on. Lithuania Energy & Grid: Lithuania introduced dynamic electricity tariffs for large businesses, a move that will reshape how industry manages power costs. Renewables Watch: Eurostat says renewables generated 45.5% of EU electricity in Q1 2026, with Lithuania at 75.7% (mostly wind), underlining the scale of clean power already feeding local industry. Producer Prices: Eurostat data show industrial producer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in both the euro area and EU, while annual inflation remains elevated; Lithuania is among the fastest risers (12.3% y/y). Ukraine Power Supply Chain: Ukraine says donated European power equipment is already operating at energy facilities, with Lithuania’s Ignitis Gamyba delivering 152 shipments—an industrial logistics win for regional energy resilience. Drone Deals: Ukraine is pushing “drone deals” with at least seven NATO states by end-2026, positioning itself as a defence technology and know-how supplier, not just a recipient.

NATO Budget Pressure: Ahead of the Ankara summit, the US urged allies to move faster toward the 5% of GDP defence target, with uneven progress already straining European budgets. Baltic Readiness: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are tightening defences under a joint Baltic line, including barriers, minefields and bunkers, as planners warn Russia could test the region after any Ukraine ceasefire. Lithuanian Power Market: Lithuania’s regulator approved optional dynamic electricity transmission tariffs for large businesses from January 2027, linking grid charges to wholesale day-ahead prices and offering discounts when prices fall to zero or below. Defence Industry Focus: Lithuania’s PM said the summit must push air defence and boost defence industry capacity, innovation and cost control, while Russia remains the main long-term threat. Energy Equipment for Ukraine: Ukraine and European partners inspected eight decommissioned thermal plants across the region to repurpose equipment, with Lithuania’s AB Ignitis Gamyba supplying 152 shipments. Producer Prices Watch: Eurostat data showed Lithuania’s industrial producer prices rose 12.3% year-on-year in May, among the fastest in the EU, driven largely by energy. Forestry Finance: Luminor Bank provided €3m to Latvian forestry firm Timbro, lifting its credit facility to €5m to expand logging and timber trading. Lithuanian Tech/Finance: WhiteBIT redesigned its VIP programme, letting users qualify via any single metric (balance, spot, futures or lending) with automatic upgrades.

Lithuanian Energy Market Reform: Lithuania will roll out optional dynamic electricity transmission tariffs for large businesses from January 2027, letting firms link grid charges to wholesale day-ahead prices via Litgrid and even cut transmission components to zero when prices hit or fall below zero, with further emergency-related discounts and a preferential zero-cent rate for consumption above 500 GWh annually. NATO Summit Watch (Ankara): Ahead of the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara, Lithuania’s PM Inga Ruginiene says the alliance must reaffirm unity, push defense spending toward 5% of GDP, and accelerate air-defense and defense-industry capacity as Russia remains the key long-term threat. Baltic Defense Posture: Politico reports NATO’s eastern flank is preparing for a “first days alone” scenario, with Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia strengthening a joint Baltic defense line through anti-tank ditches, minefields, bunkers, drones and sensors. Defense Industry Signal: Lithuania is also tied into NATO’s defense-industrial push, with coverage highlighting the need to scale production and innovation as allies seek faster delivery and lower costs. Food Safety Disruption: A multi-country Salmonella outbreak linked to flavored instant noodles has sickened 100+ people across 14 countries, with Lithuania among the hardest hit, raising pressure on traceability and consumer safety practices. Tech Funding (Lithuania): Europe saw 55+ tech funding deals worth €1.6B+ last week, with Lithuania’s InSoil raising €120M to expand regenerative agriculture lending for 3,500+ SMEs.

Lithuania Energy Reform: Lithuania’s regulator has approved optional dynamic electricity transmission tariffs for large businesses from January 2027, letting firms link grid charges to wholesale day-ahead prices and cut costs during low-price or emergency periods via Litgrid. NATO Summit Focus: Ahead of the Ankara NATO Summit, Lithuanian PM Inga Ruginiene called Türkiye a key ally and urged allies to reaffirm transatlantic unity, lift defense spending toward 5% of GDP, and speed up air-defense and defense-industry capacity. Baltic Deterrence Push: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met Baltic leaders to signal Germany’s deeper role in eastern-flank deterrence as the region demands real deployments, not just pledges. Defense Industry Spotlight: NATO’s AIRCOM Industry Day at Ramstein highlighted how European industry must close the gap on countering drones and unmanned systems, where fighter scrambles can be far more expensive than the threats. Nuclear Policy Debate: Lithuania is moving to repeal its constitutional ban on deploying nuclear weapons, following Finland’s mid-June shift. Food Safety Alert: A multi-country Salmonella outbreak tied to flavored instant noodles has sickened 100+ people, with Lithuania among the hardest hit.

Lithuanian Defense Policy Shift: President Gitanas Nausėda says Lithuania’s constitutional ban on nuclear weapons and foreign bases is “outdated,” backing removal of the restriction as Finland ends its own nuclear limits—an issue that could legally open the door to future NATO nuclear deployments. NATO Eastern Flank & Industry: Germany’s Merz met Baltic leaders in Berlin ahead of the Ankara summit, stressing “more European” NATO and calling for defense spending to translate into real equipment—while Germany strengthens defense industrial cooperation with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. Unmanned Systems Arms Race: NATO is pushing industry to counter drones after costly air-defense responses, with an AIRCOM Industry Day highlighting the need to beat Russia’s drone scale through cost, production and innovation. Energy & Infrastructure Funding: The EU and EIB approved a €2.5bn Modernisation Fund disbursement from ETS revenues across 11 states, including €169m for Lithuania, targeting energy efficiency upgrades in industry, transport and energy systems. Food Safety Watch: European authorities link a multi-country salmonella outbreak to flavoured instant noodles, with cases reported across 14 countries including Lithuania—mostly affecting children and young adults. Local Business & Tourism: Vilnius TV Tower reopened its rotating Milky Way panoramic restaurant at 165 meters, returning a signature dining draw for 130,000+ visitors annually.