AGP Executive Report

Defense-Industry Security: Mourning wreaths and photos of executives appeared near Lithuania’s RSI Europe (unmanned systems, FPV drones for Ukraine) and the Czech firm CSG, prompting a Lithuanian police probe after a suspect was detained; company head Tomas Milašauskas called it intimidation and said operations will continue. Hybrid Threats Watch: A week of reporting highlights Russia’s “gray zone” push across Europe—sabotage, arson, cyberattacks, drone incursions and recruitment—aimed at raising the cost of supporting Ukraine and increasing fears of direct conflict. Regional Defense Coordination: NB8 leaders met in Kyiv to sign new air and missile defense, energy resilience and financial measures, while Lithuania is already acting on warnings with NASAMS coverage near Vilnius. Energy & Infrastructure: Port of Klaipėda began work on a €1bn southern expansion, and EIB backed €9.2bn for EU energy autonomy and business financing. Logistics & Trade: Baltic rail freight stakeholders discussed shifting routes as Russian/Belarus transit fades, with north-south flows and military mobility now driving planning.

Baltic Security & Hybrid Threats: Germany is pushing tighter coordination among Baltic Sea states after a rise in Russia-linked drone, sabotage and cyber incidents, with ministers calling for the issue to be built into the EU’s next budget planning. US–Russia Signals for the Baltics: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare Moscow trip to warn against attacks on NATO allies, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as Western officials weigh scenarios ranging from “Crimean-style” provocations to attempts to disrupt the Suwałki corridor. Energy Infrastructure: Lithuania’s gas transmission operator Amber Grid awarded ROSEN a three-year contract for non-intrusive pipeline integrity checks across about 221 km of hard-to-inspect lines, aiming to keep critical assets safe without interrupting flows. Aviation & Connectivity: airBaltic marked its 31st anniversary and hit 70 million passengers, highlighting continued demand for Baltic air links. Grain & Trade Pressure: EU wheat prices hit contract highs as Black Sea exports remain squeezed by war disruptions, with knock-on effects for next-year planting plans. Industrial Tech Demand: forecasts point to a surge in AI data centre build-outs, boosting spending on power, lasers and precision components—an indirect tailwind for Lithuania’s manufacturing and engineering ecosystem. Defense Industry Watch: Lithuania is also in the wider NATO supply chain as Leopard 2 and STRV 122 tank refurbishments for Ukraine continue, underscoring regional industrial capacity needs.

Energy & Infrastructure: Lithuania delivered 28.31 tonnes of critical power-grid equipment to Kyiv and Zhytomyr, including transformers and surge protection, as the war keeps hitting utilities and repair capacity. Manufacturing & Industry: Voltatron is buying Germany’s Kurz Elektronik to expand electronics manufacturing in Alytus, Lithuania, adding surface-mount and through-hole production plus cable assembly and plastics injection. Energy Security: Amber Grid awarded ROSEN a three-year contract for NIPA non-intrusive pipeline integrity checks across about 221 km of hard-to-inspect gas transmission lines, aiming to keep critical assets safe without disrupting operations. Security & Trade: Baltic Sea states are stepping up coordination against hybrid threats, with Germany pushing for EU funding to tackle drone and sabotage risks. Defense Tech & Regional Ties: Sweden will support Finland’s air defense with Gripen jets and corvettes through end-2026, reflecting spillover concerns for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Food & Logistics: EU wheat prices hit a contract high as Black Sea exports stay squeezed, pushing some buyers toward EU origins. Business & Investment Climate: Lithuania’s investor agencies stress that predictability and a stable legal process are key to attracting major projects. Illicit Trade Crackdown: Lithuanian authorities and OLAF dismantled a Kaunas-area counterfeit nicotine pouch operation, showing illegal production is moving inside the EU.

Energy Infrastructure: Amber Grid awarded ROSEN a three-year contract to run its Non-Intrusive Pipeline Assessment (NIPA) across about 221 km of hard-to-inspect gas pipelines, aiming to improve integrity decisions without interrupting flows. Manufacturing & Electronics: Voltatron is buying Kurz Elektronik from Prettl Group, expanding electronics manufacturing in Alytus, Lithuania, and adding engineering capacity for industrial systems and household appliances. Energy Aid to Ukraine: Lithuania delivered 28.31 tonnes of critical grid equipment (transformers, surge protection and more) to Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts to support repairs and reliable power operations. Defense & Security (Baltics): Sweden will back Finland’s air surveillance and protection with Gripen jets and a corvette through end-2026, reflecting wider NATO concern over drones and hybrid threats affecting Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Local Industry & Compliance: Lithuania’s illicit trade crackdown found a Kaunas-area factory producing counterfeit nicotine pouches for distribution, showing organized in-EU manufacturing—not just smuggling. Business Climate: LIAA and partners in Latvia urged clearer, more predictable investment processes after the K2 Ventum wind farm case was rejected.

Energy & Grid Resilience: Lithuania delivered 28.31 tonnes of critical power equipment to Ukraine’s Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts, including transformers and surge protection, as the region keeps repairing and hardening infrastructure. Port & Logistics: The Port of Klaipėda has started site works for its €1bn southern expansion, with €24.5m breakwaters planned to begin this autumn to boost capacity and limit saltwater flow into the Curonian Lagoon. Manufacturing Expansion: Voltatron is buying Germany’s Kurz Elektronik, adding electronics engineering and expanding production in Alytus, Lithuania, to build a more vertically integrated industrial electronics network. Energy Storage Buildout: European Energy brought 167 MW/545 MWh of battery capacity online in 2026 so far, including new systems at Anykšciai, Lithuania, as hybrid renewable-storage portfolios grow. Pipeline Integrity: Amber Grid awarded ROSEN a three-year contract for NIPA non-intrusive pipeline assessment across 221 km of hard-to-inspect gas infrastructure. Security & Industry Risk: Baltic states are stepping up coordination over escalating hybrid warfare, with drones and sabotage threats increasingly tied to critical infrastructure protection.

Energy Finance & Grids: The European Investment Bank approved a €9.2bn package, including electricity-network investment in Germany and Greece, plus solar in Italy and Lithuania district-heating infrastructure, with further project-by-project approvals still needed. Battery Storage Rollout: European Energy brought 167MW/545MWh of battery storage online in the first eight months of 2026, including Anykščiai (Lithuania), and says more deployments are planned across the Baltics and beyond. Port Expansion: Klaipėda Port has started site preparation for a €1bn southern expansion, with new breakwaters to be built by Tilsta and designed to help limit salt-water flow into the Curonian Lagoon. Baltic Trade & Food Supply: Baltic grain exporters are booking more wheat as Black Sea shipments face disruption, with demand rising for alternative destinations including Turkey and the UAE. Security & Industry Pressure: Reports around CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s Moscow visit keep NATO threat talk in focus, while Lithuania’s Rūdninkai Forest partisan bunkers face uncertainty as a German military base nears completion. Local Business: Lidl Estonia posted record revenue of €169.45m but losses above €24m amid store expansion and digital investment.

Defense & Security: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow, warning Russia against escalating against NATO—especially Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—while Baltic leaders also urged the EU to boost resilience funding after concerns over hybrid threats. Border & Migration: Latvia’s border guard chief says migrant tunnels on the Latvia–Belarus border were built with Belarusian knowledge, and expects more attempts; Lithuania has already found more tunnels. Energy & Industry: Lithuania Defense Services refurbished a Leopard 2 and an STRV 122 for Ukraine, showing how local repair capacity is feeding the war effort. Power Markets: Capalo AI will optimize and trade European Energy’s Anykščiai (Lithuania) and Saldus (Latvia) solar-plus-storage hybrids, targeting better dispatch and market participation. Construction & Business Infrastructure: Vilnius selected IMPLMNT Architects’ “THREE” design for Lithuania’s first purpose-built congress centre, aiming for a 2031 opening. Consumer Regulation: Lithuania is tightening supervision of children’s toys under the EU safety rules, with clearer roles for conformity bodies and market surveillance. Agriculture & Trade: Baltic grain exporters see demand rising as Black Sea supply is disrupted, with buyers seeking alternatives including Turkey and the UAE. EU Policy: The European Commission adopted Greece’s Social Climate Plan, the largest so far, as ETS2 expands. Tech & Space: Kongsberg will expand its N3X maritime surveillance satellite constellation; its MP42H microsatellite bus is built by Lithuania’s NanoAvionics.

Baltic Energy & Grid Resilience: Lithuania declared a nationwide “extreme situation” after a weekend storm, with 56,000 hectares of crops possibly hit (30–60% in some areas) and tens of thousands still without power; the government is moving to unlock EU relief and state reserve support. Power Infrastructure Costs: ESO warned that accelerating overhead line undergrounding to 6,000 km would cost about EUR 500m and could push tariffs up, while only 2,000 km is planned in the next year. Defense Industry & Supply Chains: Wolfram Europa announced a €200m explosives and warhead complex in Latvia near the Russian border, targeting major output to close Europe’s munitions raw-material gap. Lithuanian Tech in Space/Maritime: Kongsberg is speeding up deployment of its N3X maritime surveillance constellation, with satellites built by Lithuania’s NanoAvionics. Hybrid Threats & NATO Warnings: Latvia’s president’s office says direct invasion risk is low but sabotage and cyber remain likely; meanwhile, reports say the CIA chief warned Moscow against attacking NATO, focusing on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. EU Rules for Travel: The European Parliament approved passenger-rights reforms banning airlines from separating families with children under 14 for seat reservations. Renewables Trading: Capalo AI will optimize and trade European Energy’s Anykščiai (Lithuania) and Saldus (Latvia) hybrid solar-storage assets across day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets.

EU Budget Push for Eastern Flank: European Council President António Costa wrapped up his Baltic tour by urging a 2028–2034 EU budget deal by year-end, stressing defence, security, industrial transformation and support for border regions after repeated Russian-linked drone and hybrid incidents. Lithuania Storm Fallout: Lithuania declared a nationwide “extreme situation” after a severe weekend storm damaged crops and farm infrastructure, with 30–60% crop loss in some western areas and tens of thousands still without power as restoration was targeted for 30 August. Grid Resilience Costs: ESO chief warned that accelerating power-line undergrounding to 6,000 km would cost about €500m and could raise tariffs, while the government seeks a political agreement to speed up storm-proofing. Defence Industry in the Region: Rheinmetall secured Lithuania call-offs under Germany’s G-CAP II static-accommodation programme for a modular camp for up to 2,000 troops, while Lithuania-linked defence supply chains also featured in wider EU security procurement debates. Hybrid Threats to Industry: Reporting highlighted Russia’s use of local criminal proxies to sabotage weapons and drone-related facilities across Europe, underscoring the risk to defence production hubs. Payments Deal Watch: ECM Partners’ planned €100m-plus purchase of half of payabl. advanced to Cyprus central bank review, with payabl. operating across EU markets including Lithuania.

Defence Procurement Push: France is urging the EU to set time limits on Ukraine Support Loan exemptions that let Kyiv buy non-EU defence gear, including Chinese drone components and US Patriot interceptors, to steer more funding toward European production. Lithuania Air Defence Upgrade: Lithuania has deployed NASAMS near Vilnius, replacing the RBS 70 short-range system, as drone incursions keep pressure on the eastern flank; the country plans more NASAMS batteries by 2028. Baltic Missile Deal: Poland’s MESKO and PGZ signed a €1.86bn Piorun MANPADS framework for Lithuania, Latvia, Norway and Poland under the EU SAFE scheme, with deliveries running to 2030. Energy Security Move: Lithuania and Ukraine signed an energy partnership declaration and created a joint coordination group ahead of winter. Fuel Costs Watch: Eurostat data shows fuel and lubricants prices rose sharply across the EU in July, with Lithuania among the biggest year-on-year increases. Local Industry Signal: Lithuania’s Vinted growth story continues to draw attention as the Vilnius-born resale platform scales internationally. EU Budget Politics: European Council President António Costa kicked off a capital tour to unlock the next long-term EU budget, with defence and cohesion high on the agenda.

Lithuanian Air Defence Upgrade: Lithuania has deployed a NASAMS surface-to-air missile system near Vilnius, replacing the earlier RBS 70 coverage and boosting range, speed and accuracy as drone incursions keep pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. NATO Procurement Push: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Norway signed a framework agreement to buy Piorun MANPADS from PGZ/MESKO under the EU SAFE scheme, worth about €1.86bn, covering several thousand missiles and hundreds of launchers with deliveries running to 2030. EU Defence Rules Debate: France is urging limits on how long Ukraine can use EU-loan exemptions to buy non-European defence gear, including Chinese drone components and US Patriot interceptors, while EU ministers argue for flexibility when EU supply can’t meet urgent needs. Energy Security & Infrastructure: Lithuania and Ukraine signed an energy security declaration and created a joint coordination group ahead of winter, while separate reporting highlights how undersea cables and pipelines are a growing sabotage target in Europe’s security landscape. Housing Market Recovery: Eurostat data shows residential property transactions rose in 17 of 20 EU countries in 2025, with Lithuania among the fastest movers (+22.8%), as mortgage affordability stabilises.

Lithuanian Energy Security: President Gitanas Nausėda warned that Russia could stage “false flag” attacks targeting Baltic critical infrastructure, with energy independence at the top of Lithuania’s risk list. Defense Procurement: Poland’s Mesko signed an €1.9bn SAFE-financed deal to supply Piorun man-portable air-defence systems to Poland, Norway, Lithuania and Latvia, with deliveries running to 2030. Rail & Infrastructure: LTG Link will cut frequency on the Vilnius–Kaunas–Vilnius line in September and October for Lentvaris–Vievis contact-wire and structural upgrades, while keeping 30 round trips daily. EU Fisheries: The European Commission proposed 2027 Baltic Sea fishing quotas, including higher opportunities for herring and sprat alongside by-catch cuts for cod and herring. Decommissioning Watch: Lithuania continues dismantling the Soviet-era Ignalina nuclear plant, with decommissioning planned to finish by 2050. Tech & Finance: Revolut secured a full banking licence in France and applied for a banking licence in Finland as it expands from its Lithuanian base. Aviation Curiosity: A U.S. Air Force C-17A flew from Riga to Vnukovo near Moscow, with no official purpose disclosed.

Lithuania–Ukraine Defence Industry: Lithuania’s DEMZ will build a new ammunition factory in Lithuania, creating up to 450 jobs, as the country deepens its role as a production hub for Ukraine and NATO partners. Baltic Energy Security: President Gitanas Nausėda warned Russia could stage “false flag” attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure, spotlighting the need to protect Lithuania’s energy independence after LNG and grid-synchronisation upgrades. EU Defence Procurement Push: Poland’s MESKO signed a €2.2bn deal for Piorun air-defence launchers and missiles under the EDIRPA SAFE framework, with Lithuania, Latvia and Norway included. Aviation & Rail Logistics: LTG Link will reduce train frequency on the Vilnius–Kaunas route during Lentvaris–Vievis electrification repairs in September and October. Fintech Expansion: Revolut applied for a licensed banking branch in Finland, moving beyond cross-border services by using its Lithuanian banking base. Energy Trade: ORLEN begins a three-year Equinor crude supply deal in September, feeding refineries in Poland, Czechia and Lithuania with flexible Norwegian volumes. Security & Hybrid Threats: Western assessments say Russia is escalating covert sabotage and arson against European weapons makers, using criminal networks to keep deniability.

Lithuania–Ukraine Defence Jobs: Lithuania will host a new DEMZ ammunition factory, with the economy ministry signing the investment contract for up to 450 jobs in Alytus and the Prienai district, positioning the site as a regional production and innovation hub for NATO-standard defensive ammunition. Hybrid War Watch: Western intelligence says Russia is behind a covert sabotage push against European weapons supply chains, using local criminal intermediaries to keep attacks below the level that would trigger NATO’s Article 5. Cyber & Arson Threats: A wave of cyber attacks targeting European weapons factories is under investigation, following fires such as the Milrem Robotics incident in Tallinn. Energy Resilience After Storm: A major storm left about 129,000 Lithuanian consumers without power days later, with rail disruptions and insurance losses potentially reaching €3m. Klaipėda Carbon Terminal Greenlight: Lithuania’s EPA approved the environmental impact assessment for a CO₂ transhipment terminal at KN Energies in Klaipėda, aimed at building a Baltic CCS value chain. Energy Cooperation: Lithuania and Ukraine signed a declaration to deepen energy security ties, including wartime grid protection know-how exchange and support via equipment transfers and gas diversification. Fuel Price Pressure: Eurostat reports Lithuania’s fuel prices rose 22.9% year-on-year in July 2026, among the steepest in the EU.

Lithuania–Ukraine Energy Deal: Lithuania’s Energy Minister Lukas Savickas and Ukraine’s Denys Shmyhal signed a joint declaration to deepen energy cooperation, including wartime know-how on grid resilience and infrastructure protection, plus heavy equipment transfers, decentralised power and gas diversification, with a 2026–2028 action plan and possible use of Klaipėda LNG. Nordic-Baltic Summit in Kyiv: NB8 leaders (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden) pledged continued political, military and economic support for Ukraine, with a focus on winter readiness and protecting port and critical energy infrastructure. Air-Defense Push: Zelenskyy held multiple bilateral meetings in Kyiv, stressing urgent ballistic missile defense funding and faster implementation of projects like FREYJA, while Denmark reiterated “for as long as it takes” support for stronger air defense. Defense-Industry Sabotage Watch: Western reporting says Russia is behind a new wave of sabotage at European weapons factories, using local criminal groups to keep attacks below NATO Article 5 triggers; Latvia detained suspects over an arson case tied to Estonia’s Milrem Robotics. Industrial Supply Chain Angle: Finland will manufacture drones for Ukraine and Europe under signed agreements, pairing Ukrainian combat experience with Finnish technology. Energy Markets: Equinor and Orlen signed a three-year crude supply deal from Johan Sverdrup to support refineries in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic.

Lithuanian diplomacy & security: President Gitanas Nausėda arrived in Kyiv for Ukraine’s Flag Day and Independence Day events, meeting Zelensky and Nordic-Baltic allies as they push a coordinated air-defense approach. Nordic-Baltic air defense push: Finland’s Alexander Stubb pledged continued support for Ukraine during Kyiv talks, while Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen said a new missile defense system (Freya) will be strengthened with allies and faster production. Defense-industry pressure: Western reporting says Russia is targeting European armaments factories via sabotage and hybrid tactics, including suspected links to attacks on drone and weapons suppliers. Energy industry tie-up: Orlen signed a three-year crude supply deal with Equinor for Johan Sverdrup oil, with deliveries starting in September and shipments covering refineries including in Lithuania. Transport & logistics: Sallaum Lines launched Sallaum Logistics to extend its sea-to-road automotive vehicle transport chain across Europe. Fuel costs: Eurostat data show Lithuania’s fuel and lubricants prices rose 22.9% year-on-year in July 2026, among the highest in the EU. Lithuanian tech manufacturing: Vilnius-based LITILIT secured €8m to scale femtosecond laser systems for mass manufacturing.